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Stalin-Molotov

Deterrence, Correlation

Things have changed since the late 2021 US pullout from Afghanistan. The world is now a more uncertain place, as deterrence no longer seems to hold the same guiding influence on state behavior. What affects human behavior, also effects where asset prices clear. By implication, a sea change in the geopolitical environment should mean some […]

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Milei Agonistes

Self-described “anarcho-capitalist” Javier Milei realized an overwhelming victory in the second round of Argentina’s presidential elections. He intends to do the dramatic, but will contend with fractious politics, entrenched incumbents and factions, and the strangeness of what seems like a “post-state” society. Global investors must remain clear-eyed and tactical, opportunistic in their position-taking with an […]

"<a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/32771300@N02/36807623610" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">'1+6' Roundtable: Promoting an open, invigorated and Inclusive World Economy, Beijing, China</a>" by <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/32771300@N02" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Develop</a> is licensed under <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">CC BY-NC 2.0</a>

Losing Frame, Geopolitically

Nation states and non-state actors work together, or bump into each, ignore each other, or fall into conflict. Behind much of this interaction is the geopolitical order, or “framework”, or system. The world’s current version is becoming frayed. It’s still working for the most part but has become a bit more halting. This means more […]

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It Pays to Get a Grip

The global investor and risk-taker should be part district attorney, part story teller, part psychologist, probably part book-maker, part visionary, and candid empiricist. He or she must embrace the due-diligence process, which is comparable to saying that the child must savor that spoonful of castor oil, or that second helping of steamed spinach. Not easy […]

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Patently False

For the global investor and lender, it will always be a case of caveat-emptor, or knowing what you’re paying for. If you choose to pay too much, or allocate too much capital toward something or someone, you’re committing a risk-taking mistake a priori. Your envisioned “margin” or the return is much more at risk than […]

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What Seems to Work

The geopolitical and the merely political, the credit-worthy and the less so, all reflect human behavior. Human nature often trumps planning, but sound institutions (when they’re present) facilitate positive sum outcomes and the behaviors that engender those outcomes. And that’s important: positive outcomes are mutually beneficial – no one is left holding the short end […]

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Bonds Undone, Maybe

Recent rating agency analysis cites negative secular trends in place. Whether fiscal ends can meet will become more an open-ended question as the next decades unfold. Global risk takers should take heed as fiscal circumstances become straitened, presenting greater levels of event and duration risk for fixed income portfolios. At least that’s what’s implied. Developing […]

currency-duotone

Global Work Around

It’s a very globalized world, but it’s good to acknowledge differences. Obdurate human nature being what it is – along with enduring and distinctive institutional, cultural and sovereign expression – means differences will endure. The world is not uniform and working realities contrast, which implies differing levels of risk. This makes due-diligence that much more […]

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Elevator Music

It is funny but apt, chaos theory holds that the fluttering of a butterfly’s wings can culminate in a massive storm somewhere else. It is all non-linear and weirdly contingent. Just so, ill-considered policy choices, along with venal decision-making, can unleash the weather-controlling geopolitical whirlwind. Global risk-takers are now contending with the knock-on effects from […]