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Force Majeure, Coming Soon to a Theater Near You

Sometimes things pretty much go seamlessly, processes unfold and matters happen according to protocol. At other times, though, things don’t go according to that protocol – they go awry, or they are inadvertently consequential, or they are both. Often these notable events appear to be seminal, or catalyzing, only in retrospect. And so, they matter. […]

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The Quadrilateral Commission

Back in October 1973, the Great and the Good gathered. They did so at the behest of David Rockefeller, the financially independent and influential public citizen whose chosen vocation happened to be global banking. At the time, developments were impelling him. Rockefeller was feeling the growing need for a new “non-governmental discussion group”, as Wikipedia […]

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China, A Publicly Traded Company

During the past month, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) celebrated its centennial anniversary. Like many large encompassing macro-scale organizations – say like a large predominating political party or a market-enveloping corporation, its beginnings were humble and inconspicuous. Just like the beginnings were for Hewlett-Packard in that fateful Palo Alto garage so many decades ago, or […]

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Chutzpah Risk

Should developments in military affairs and geopolitics concern global investors? That’s a question that leans into a ready answer: Diminishing deterrence, lessening forbearance, and emboldened military risk-taking due to enhanced capability mean more assertiveness, more pre-emptive action. This spells greater event risk for the global investor. This means perhaps a further layering of the global […]

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Fine Print, Incredibly Small

In some ways, the Covid pandemic has been fostering global communitarianism and maybe more of a sense of mutual international obligation, the rhetoric for it is certainly there. And there have been well-meaning declarations and some action. But then cynics might say actions, such as they are, might be more analogous to, say, Kellogg-Briand than […]

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EM Systolic Diastolic

Last March, the global economy experienced a kind of coronary infarction. Covid-19 virulence coursed through the economy, prompting among other things draconian travel barriers and a sharp decline in trade. In its January 2021 World Economic Update release, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that global trade volumes declined -9.6% during 2020. A definite shock […]

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The IMF Knows Uncertainty!

An esteemed US Supreme Court Justice named Potter Stewart many decades ago considered the law and considered the constitutional protections of the First Amendment. Given a particular case before the bench, he wanted to ascertain where those protections may never end, and where they just might, say perhaps at the reaches of obscenity – at […]

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Golden Fleece

China – its national economic success to date and its vast local population focus any risk-taker’s mind and appetites on that place, Covid notwithstanding. So, it’s with interest that this observer read a recent article in the Financial Times (FT) highlighting some additional caveats to think about, a useful benefit from objective reporting. In their […]

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Talking Terms

Borders are closed, vaccines are expedited. The Covid-19 pandemic continues to circulate and policy makers continue to react while trying to plan. More fell developments occur, and so more problems require attention. This past October, the sub-Saharan country Zambia missed a USD 42.5 mln Eurobond coupon payment, the Zambians missed another payment on November 14th, […]