A fitful, and perhaps inconstant hegemon – in the eyes of many – nevertheless offers apparent avenues for innovation and change. What this means for asset-holders may be the creation of steady wealth and the appreciation of value over the long-term, secular horizon. This, of course, assumes that such a “fitful”, perhaps “inconstant” (and did […]
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Could be an Intervention…
Turkish interest rate and monetary policy unorthodoxy together conjure another layer of risk premia for the Turkish economy and financial assets. If allowed to metastasize, market and resident negative reaction to this unorthodoxy could entail substantial event risk, challenging local stability and inviting some form of civic intervention. We’ve all probably been there, we’ve all […]
Consider the Anti-Hero Credit…
The due-diligence exercise does not end in the ready access to newspaper feature articles, nor does it reside purely in the macro-economic numbers. Country review requires an appreciation of risk tolerance (yours) and an ongoing assessment of how country institutions work (or not) and your considered judgment on the country capacity and inclination to pay. […]
Force Majeure, Coming Soon to a Theater Near You
Sometimes things pretty much go seamlessly, processes unfold and matters happen according to protocol. At other times, though, things don’t go according to that protocol – they go awry, or they are inadvertently consequential, or they are both. Often these notable events appear to be seminal, or catalyzing, only in retrospect. And so, they matter. […]
The Quadrilateral Commission
Back in October 1973, the Great and the Good gathered. They did so at the behest of David Rockefeller, the financially independent and influential public citizen whose chosen vocation happened to be global banking. At the time, developments were impelling him. Rockefeller was feeling the growing need for a new “non-governmental discussion group”, as Wikipedia […]
China, A Publicly Traded Company
During the past month, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) celebrated its centennial anniversary. Like many large encompassing macro-scale organizations – say like a large predominating political party or a market-enveloping corporation, its beginnings were humble and inconspicuous. Just like the beginnings were for Hewlett-Packard in that fateful Palo Alto garage so many decades ago, or […]
Chutzpah Risk
Should developments in military affairs and geopolitics concern global investors? That’s a question that leans into a ready answer: Diminishing deterrence, lessening forbearance, and emboldened military risk-taking due to enhanced capability mean more assertiveness, more pre-emptive action. This spells greater event risk for the global investor. This means perhaps a further layering of the global […]
Fine Print, Incredibly Small
In some ways, the Covid pandemic has been fostering global communitarianism and maybe more of a sense of mutual international obligation, the rhetoric for it is certainly there. And there have been well-meaning declarations and some action. But then cynics might say actions, such as they are, might be more analogous to, say, Kellogg-Briand than […]
EM Systolic Diastolic
Last March, the global economy experienced a kind of coronary infarction. Covid-19 virulence coursed through the economy, prompting among other things draconian travel barriers and a sharp decline in trade. In its January 2021 World Economic Update release, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that global trade volumes declined -9.6% during 2020. A definite shock […]